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It’s hard to say with a straight face, but it looks like an interim top in the wave 3 is finally declaring itself? We’ll have to see how the bounces pan out Thursday and Friday as to the confirmation but for now the structure and price levels reached fit well with the projections we’ve been working with, by spiking up and hitting right in the middle of the 15,400-15,660 range given in yesterday’s update. The problem moving forward will then …

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The Nikkei has jumped on up through 15,500 in this morning’s trade which has me looking for a point where the wave iii of (v) of 3 should be starting to falter in a short term top. It would then be followed by a small wave iv of (v) of 3 and then up in the v of (v) of 3 before a move down in the larger wave 4 for a month or so. There are a few extension …

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The Dow is stuck in a terminal uptrend, or so it feels. This is the price action of a wave 3 and although it feels like it will never end it Will. Until we break support levels though, it isn’t worth trying to trade against it despite it now being in nose bleed levels. The count is full which has me looking for a top. In the short-term (inside the next 3-5 days) we can have a couple of 3, …

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The Dollar Index DX looks to be extending out the wave 4 of it’s 5 wave pattern which should be followed by a last run higher into the price targets surrounding 85.00 – 85.50. 86-86.20 loom as strong resistance areas for price to struggle with on the upside. The currencies have been enjoying some volatility and essentially haven’t traveled anywhere in what is typical wave 4 price action. The GBPUSD is about the only one that’s tested lower into it’s …

GBPUSD – Pound Update

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The Pound is still on track with the proposed structure from the last update on May 12th http://blog.tokyotraders.com/gbpusd-pound-update/ with the Fibonacci retracement levels acting as fairly good targets and support zones for now. The overall picture that the retracement higher is ongoing will depend on the 1.50-1.49 zone holding the downside. A bit of a bounce is developing this early Monday morning and would be looking for the next downside move to preferably target the 61.8% fib and then hold …

 

Gold Finally Headed to Lower Targets

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It’s been a little while since I updated the Gold charts. With price stuck below important resistance of 1500-1530 the wait was on for the break either back down or above the resistance. And this last week price has continued with the intermediate trend as favored in the last update. Targets remain in the 1230 – 1318 range for this next set of moves. Once this next lot of downside moves is done, the real test of whether Gold has …

 

Dow Update

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The end of the week saw the market trend further in this potentially last lot of 5 waves. The count is full or nearly so, but as the last update said…the market has extended each count to its maximum every time and this time can’t be discounted as well… and essentially that’s what we’re getting with the run just short of the equality target of 15,387 on Friday. With the next measured target at 15,659 still a possibility should the …

 

US Dollar Update – Count Filling Up

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The dollar has had a great run up in this 5 wave move which I’ve been counting as the 5th wave of C of B, before the moves down into the C targets over the summer. Short-term there are a couple of ways to count the structure, but both have this upside move more than half done. We’re either looking at the (iii) completed or near to completing. Both counts allow for at least a 4th and 5th wave to …

 

TY 10YR T-Notes

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The 10Yr is coming into a fairly clear price juncture in terms of the larger and smaller time-frame counts. As long as the important supports hold on these downside moves in the short-term then we should be ready for the larger wave 5 to complete it’s 5th wave  in C and potentially finish off the 30 year trend over this coming year. The timing isn’t as important as the count filling out so that’s where the focus will lie. Junk …

 

Yen Near Targets

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This is the Yen futures chart, so don’t confuse it with the USD/JPY pair although can obviously be used to help with understanding the pair. Price is right near a couple of measured targets in the triangle breakout and also the extension of the wave 1 off the top which targets 96.68 and the triangle at 96.82. In the case of the USD/JPY the measured targets that I have are at 102.87 and 103.61 with 104.80 at a stretch.